Hemlo vs Kalshi

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

Hemlo leader
Gavin Newsom34% Hemlo
Outcome
Kalshi
Hemlo
Wes Moore
2%
8%
J.D. Vance
17%
14%
Jon Ossoff
5%
16%
Marco Rubio
22%
12%
Gavin Newsom
16%
34%
Donald J. Trump
2%
6%
Donald J. Trump Jr.
100%
0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%
10%
Verdict

The simulation results indicate Gavin Newsom as the leading outcome with 34% of the votes, suggesting a strong preference among agents for his candidacy in the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election. Agents favored Newsom due to his experience as a governor, which aligns with the electorate's desire for stability and change beyond traditional Democratic candidates. His appeal was further bolstered by arguments emphasizing economic conditions and market predictability, as highlighted by Jessica Kim, an economist at a major investment bank. In contrast, the crowd pricing undervalued Newsom at 16%, significantly lower than the simulation's outcome, indicating a potential misalignment between market expectations and agent-based predictions. Other candidates like Jon Ossoff and J.D. Vance also showed notable support, reflecting the diverse ideological spectrum within the simulation.

Why Hemlo moved

Key Factors

1.Gavin Newsom's gubernatorial experience
2.Electorate's desire for non-traditional candidates
3.Economic stability and market predictability
4.Underestimation by crowd pricing
5.Diverse ideological support for other candidates
Agent signal

Notable People

JE
Jessica KimEconomist at a major investment bank
Gavin Newsom
MA
Marcus ThorneSenior Political Strategist for a major conservative think tank
J.D. Vance
AM
Amanda FosterSocial media influencer focusing on Gen Z political engagement
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Simulation core

Run Signal

34%
15 agents modeled
5 simulation rounds
50 agent actions recorded