Hemlo vs Kalshi

Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?

Hemlo leader
Todd Blanche52% Hemlo
Outcome
Kalshi
Hemlo
Ken Paxton
4%
0%
Lee Zeldin
15%
48%
Alina Habba
100%
0%
Jay Clayton
100%
0%
Ron DeSantis
3%
0%
Todd Blanche
62%
52%
Jeanine Pirro
5%
0%
Harmeet Dhillon
100%
0%
Verdict

The simulation results indicate Todd Blanche as the leading candidate for Trump's next Attorney General, with 52% of the votes, closely followed by Lee Zeldin at 48%. The agents' preference for Blanche is driven by his perceived loyalty to Trump and his controversial yet competent legal background, which aligns with Trump's historical preference for staunch loyalists in key positions. The market crowd pricing, however, shows an even stronger confidence in Blanche at 62%, suggesting that broader market participants see him as a more definitive choice compared to the agents' closer split. This discrepancy may reflect the agents' deeper consideration of political stability and judicial palatability, factors that slightly favor Zeldin among some participants.

Why Hemlo moved

Key Factors

1.Loyalty to Trump
2.Legal competence
3.Political stability
4.Judicial palatability
5.Market confidence
Agent signal

Notable People

JA
James 'Jim' O'ConnellVeteran GOP donor and bundler from Florida
Todd Blanche
RO
Robert 'Bob' MillerRetired federal judge with a history of conservative rulings
Lee Zeldin
MA
Maria GonzalezImmigration attorney and policy analyst
Todd Blanche
Simulation core

Run Signal

52%
15 agents modeled
5 simulation rounds
50 agent actions recorded