Hemlo vs Polymarket

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

Hemlo leader
Chong Won-oh76% Hemlo
Outcome
Polymarket
Hemlo
Cho Kuk
100%
2%
Oh Se-hoon
10%
22%
Cho Eun-hee
100%
0%
Chong Won-oh
90%
76%
Hong Ihk-pyo
100%
0%
Ahn Cheol-soo
100%
0%
Kang Hoon-sik
100%
0%
Park Yong-jin
100%
0%
Verdict

The simulation results strongly indicate Chong Won-oh as the leading candidate for the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election, with 76% of the votes among participating agents. This outcome aligns with the crowd pricing, which shows a 90% probability for Chong Won-oh, suggesting a consensus on his viability. Key arguments from agents highlight his focus on economic revitalization for small enterprises and addressing youth unemployment, resonating with a broad demographic. While Oh Se-hoon garnered 22% of the votes, his traditional values and national security stance found less traction compared to Chong Won-oh's progressive and economic-focused platform. The minimal support for other candidates, including Cho Kuk, reflects the current political climate's preference for establishment figures with clear policy directions.

Why Hemlo moved

Key Factors

1.Economic revitalization for small enterprises
2.Addressing youth unemployment
3.Progressive platform resonating with younger voters
4.Alignment with current political climate preferences
5.Strong consensus among both agents and crowd pricing
Agent signal

Notable People

KI
Kim Min-junUniversity student and active member of the progressive youth coalition
Chong Won-oh
PA
Park Ji-sooSmall business owner in Jongno-gu
Chong Won-oh
CH
Choi Kang-minFreelance journalist investigating political corruption
Oh Se-hoon
Simulation core

Run Signal

76%
15 agents modeled
5 simulation rounds
50 agent actions recorded