Hemlo vs Polymarket

Bitcoin above ___ on May 23?

Hemlo leader
76,00042% Hemlo
Outcome
Polymarket
Hemlo
68,000
99%
18%
70,000
98%
6%
72,000
98%
2%
74,000
98%
2%
76,000
84%
42%
78,000
33%
12%
80,000
5%
10%
82,000
100%
8%
Verdict

The simulation results indicate a strong consensus among agents for Bitcoin to reach above $76,000 by May 23, with 42% of the votes favoring this outcome. This leading outcome is driven by a combination of recent market trends, including Bitcoin's climb above $72K following March's inflation data, and the aggregation of bold predictions for higher price ranges. The crowd pricing, however, shows a sharp drop in probability from 98.0% at $74,000 to 84.0% at $76,000, suggesting that while the crowd is more conservative, the agents are more optimistic about Bitcoin's potential to break through this threshold. The divergence between simulation outcomes and crowd prices highlights the agents' belief in stronger upward momentum than what the broader market is currently pricing in.

Why Hemlo moved

Key Factors

1.Recent market trends and Bitcoin's climb above $72K
2.Aggregation of bold predictions for higher price ranges
3.Sharp drop in crowd probability at $76,000
4.Agents' optimism about upward momentum
5.Divergence between simulation outcomes and crowd prices
Agent signal

Notable People

MA
Marcus ThorneLong-term Bitcoin maximalist and early investor since 2013
82,000
SA
Sarah JenkinsRisk Management Officer for a mid-sized crypto lending platform
70,000
PR
Priya PatelMacro-economic strategist tracking global liquidity and interest rates
80,000
Simulation core

Run Signal

42%
15 agents modeled
5 simulation rounds
50 agent actions recorded