Hemlo vs Polymarket

Georgia Governor Republican Primary Winner

Hemlo leader
Rick Jackson36% Hemlo
Outcome
Polymarket
Hemlo
Burt Jones
38%
24%
Chris Carr
100%
8%
Clark Dean
100%
8%
Ken Yasger
100%
6%
Rick Jackson
55%
36%
Gregg Kirkpatrick
100%
6%
Leland Olinger II
100%
6%
Brad Raffensperger
5%
6%
Verdict

The simulation outcome indicates Rick Jackson as the leading candidate in the Georgia Governor Republican Primary, securing 36% of the votes among the participating agents. This aligns with his dominant market crowd price of 55.0%, suggesting strong confidence in his candidacy. Agents favored Jackson due to his established name recognition, perceived electability, and strategic focus, which were highlighted by his supporters and market watchers. Despite Burt Jones showing significant momentum with 24% of the votes and a 38.0% market price, the gap between him and Jackson underscores the latter's frontrunner status. The disparity between simulation votes and market prices for other candidates like Brad Raffensperger and Chris Carr reflects their limited traction among agents compared to their modest market shares.

Why Hemlo moved

Key Factors

1.Name recognition and electability of Rick Jackson
2.Strategic campaign focus and financial backing
3.Market confidence reflected in high crowd pricing
4.Limited traction of niche candidates despite ideological appeals
5.Polling data and media coverage influencing agent decisions
Agent signal

Notable People

RI
Rick Jackson SupporterDedicated campaigner for Rick Jackson
Rick Jackson
BU
Burt Jones Campaign ManagerStrategic operator for Burt Jones
Burt Jones
PO
Polymarket Market WatcherAlgorithmic trader monitoring market liquidity
Rick Jackson
Simulation core

Run Signal

36%
15 agents modeled
5 simulation rounds
50 agent actions recorded