Next leader out of power before 2027?

The simulation overwhelmingly predicts Viktor Orbán, Hungary's Prime Minister, as the most likely leader to be ousted before 2027, with 68% of the votes. This outcome is driven by the perceived fragility of Orbán's authoritarian stability, despite his strong grip on power. Agents like Zoltán Varga and Janos Kovacs highlight the fragmented Hungarian opposition but also note the potential for a sudden shift in public sentiment or a black swan event. The market crowd pricing, however, shows an extreme consensus at 99%, which some agents like Sarah Jenkins and Pierre Dubois view as an overreaction, suggesting a potential correction if political dynamics change. The disparity between simulation votes and market prices indicates a nuanced debate about Orbán's resilience versus the unpredictability of populist regimes.