Hemlo vs Polymarket

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Hemlo leader
J.D. Vance35% Hemlo
Outcome
Polymarket
Hemlo
Rand Paul
100%
9%
J.D. Vance
39%
35%
Marco Rubio
23%
24%
Donald Trump
2%
0%
Ron DeSantis
2%
6%
Glenn Youngkin
2%
9%
Tucker Carlson
6%
0%
Donald Trump Jr.
3%
18%
Verdict

The simulation results indicate J.D. Vance as the leading Republican Presidential Nominee for 2028, capturing 35.3% of the votes. Vance's strong showing is attributed to his vice presidential experience, Ohio swing-state credibility, and a robust digital fundraising engine, which positions him as the frontrunner in a volatile primary landscape. The market crowd pricing aligns closely with this outcome, placing Vance at 39.0%, suggesting a consensus on his viability. Marco Rubio follows as a significant contender with 23.5% of the votes, driven by his perceived foreign policy expertise and fiscal responsibility, though the market slightly undervalues him at 23.0%. Donald Trump Jr. and Glenn Youngkin also show notable support, but their market prices are significantly lower, indicating a potential misalignment between simulation outcomes and market expectations.

Why Hemlo moved

Key Factors

1.Vance's vice presidential and swing-state credentials
2.Rubio's foreign policy and fiscal responsibility appeal
3.Trump Jr.'s legacy and base mobilization potential
4.Youngkin's border security and economic growth record
5.DeSantis' grassroots support in the South and Midwest
Agent signal

Notable People

EL
Elena RossiVeteran campaign strategist for JD Vance
J.D. Vance
MA
Marcus ThorneFlorida party elder and Rubio backer
Marco Rubio
BR
Brock SterlingSenior advisor to the Trump campaign
Donald Trump Jr.
Simulation core

Run Signal

35%
15 agents modeled
5 simulation rounds
34 agent actions recorded