Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

The simulation outcome overwhelmingly predicts that Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to normal by the end of June, with 100% of agent votes favoring 'No.' This consensus is driven by persistent geopolitical instability, historical precedents of prolonged tensions in the region, and quantitative data showing no significant upward trend in maritime traffic. Market sentiment, as reflected in crowd pricing (67% for 'No'), aligns with this view, though the simulation's unanimity suggests even stronger conviction among expert agents. Key factors such as the IRGC's strategic naval maneuvers, transactional U.S. leadership under Donald Trump, and objective metrics from the IMF Portwatch Data Feed reinforce the likelihood of continued disruption. The absence of any 'Yes' votes underscores the depth of structural challenges, including diplomatic gridlock and risk premiums in shipping markets.