Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

The simulation overwhelmingly predicts that Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to normal by the end of May, with 78% of agents voting 'No'. This outcome is driven by heightened geopolitical tensions, reduced maritime traffic evidenced by satellite data, and a collective skepticism reflected in market pricing. Agents emphasized the persistent military presence and operational risks, which outweigh the potential for short-term de-escalation through backchannel talks. The crowd pricing aligns closely with this sentiment, with 'No' priced at 99%, indicating near-unanimous agreement on prolonged disruption.