Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

The simulation outcome indicates a 58% likelihood that Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to normal by May 15, aligning closely with the market crowd's 98% pricing for 'No.' This divergence between the simulation's less decisive majority and the market's near-unanimity suggests that while agents recognize persistent risks, the crowd perceives them as almost certain. Key agent arguments for 'No' emphasized historical patterns of unresolved tensions and the high potential for miscalculation among navies on high alert. In contrast, 'Yes' voters leaned on economic incentives and perceived control by regional authorities, but these were outweighed by the depth of geopolitical skepticism from analysts like Marcus Vane and David O'Connor, whose expertise in risk and military dynamics lent credibility to the 'No' case.