Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
May 8May 15May 22May 31June 30The simulation results indicate that the most likely outcome for the lifting of the US blockade of Hormuz is 'June 30', with 46% of the votes. This outcome was favored by agents due to the perceived need for sufficient time to adjust supply chains and activate contingency plans, ensuring stability and predictability. David Miller's conservative and historically grounded perspective emphasized that lifting a blockade would be a slow, drawn-out process, making 'June 30' a plausible timeline. Additionally, Victor Kovalenko's focus on maintaining high oil prices aligned with this outcome, as prolonged high prices benefit revenue stability. The crowd pricing for 'June 30' at 72.0% further supports this outcome, indicating strong market confidence in this timeline. While other outcomes like 'May 22' and 'May 31' were considered, they lacked the same level of consensus and market backing.