Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

The simulation overwhelmingly predicts that Hezbollah will not disarm, with 90% of the agents voting for this outcome. This aligns closely with the market crowd pricing, which stands at 86% for 'No'. The primary reasons for this consensus include Hezbollah's entrenched ideological commitment to resistance, its strong ties with Iranian backers, and its significant influence within Lebanese politics and society. Agents argued that without substantial changes in regional dynamics or internal Lebanese politics, Hezbollah has little incentive to disarm, especially given its historical refusal to do so despite international pressures like UN Resolution 1701. The economic arguments for disarmament, such as attracting foreign investment, were deemed insufficient to outweigh these entrenched factors.