Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

The simulation overwhelmingly favors December 31 as the date the US will confirm the existence of aliens, with 84% of the votes. This outcome suggests a consensus among agents that the government will delay the announcement until the last possible moment, likely to maximize strategic advantages and manage public perception carefully. The crowd pricing, however, shows a more distributed belief, with December 31 at only 19%, indicating a discrepancy between the simulated expert consensus and broader market expectations. This divergence highlights the agents' focus on governmental caution and strategic timing, whereas the crowd may be factoring in more immediate pressures or less institutional inertia.